Ubucuruzi muri EAC bwageze kuri miliyari 52.3 z’amadolari ya Amerika  

Umuryango wa Afurika y’Iburasirazuba (EAC) wagize izamuka rikomeye mu bucuruzi mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2026, aho agaciro k’ubucuruzi bwose hamwe kageze kuri miliyari 52.3 z’amadolari ya Amerika.

Ukwiyongera kw’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga kwatumye Akarere k’Uburasirazuba gakomeza kugira umusaruro mwiza w’ubucuruzi, mu gihe ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu bigize Umuryango ndetse n’ubukorwa n’amasoko akomeye yo muri Afurika no ku rwego mpuzamahanga bwakomeje kwaguka.

Ibi bikubiye muri raporo y’ibarurishamibare y’igihembwe mu Muryango wa EAC, itegurwa n’Ubunyamabanga bw’Umuryango wa Afurika y’Iburasirazuba ku bufatanye n’Ibiro bya buri gihugu bishinzwe Ibarurishamibare ndetse na Banki Nkuru z’ibihugu bigize Umuryango.

Ni raporo itanga amakuru ahujwe ku izamuka ry’ibiciro, ubucuruzi, amafaranga ari mu bukungu ndetse n’ibindi bipimo by’ingenzi by’ubukungu rusange, hagamijwe gufasha mu gufata ibyemezo bya politiki no gutegura gahunda z’iterambere.

Raporo y’Ibarurishamibare y’igihembwe izwi nka ‘EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin’ yo muri Mata kugeza Kamena 2026, igaragaza ko ubucuruzi bwose hamwe bwiyongereyeho 37.0%, buva kuri miliyari 38.2 z’amadolari mu gihembwe nk’icyo mu 2025.

Ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byiyongereyeho 41.3% bigera kuri miliyari 26.3 z’amadolari, mu gihe ibitumizwa mu mahanga byazamutseho 32.9% bigera kuri miliyari 26.0 z’amadolari.

Umuryango wa Afurika y’Iburasirazuba wagize umusaruro w’ubucuruzi wa miliyari 0.3 z’amadolari, ugereranyije n’igihombo cy’ubucuruzi cya miliyoni 945.3 z’amadolari cyari cyagaragaye mu mwaka wabanje.

Amasoko yo muri Afurika yakomeje kugira uruhare rukomeye mu izamuka ry’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga by’aka Karere.

Ibyoherezwa mu bihugu bya Afurika byiyongereyeho 44.3%, bigera kuri miliyari 7.2 z’amadolari, bingana na 27.5% by’ibyoherezwa mu bihugu bya EAC.

Ibyoherezwa mu bihugu bigize Umuryango w’Afurika y’Amajyepfo (SADC) byiyongereyeho 50.8%, bigera kuri miliyari 5.1 z’amadolari, mu gihe ibyoherezwa mu bihugu bigize Isoko Rusange ry’Afurika y’Iburasirazuba n’Amajyepfo (COMESA) byazamutseho 48.3%, bigera kuri miliyari 3.1 z’amadolari.

Ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu bigize EAC na bwo bwakomeje kuzamuka, aho ibyoherezwa hagati y’ibihugu bigize uyu muryango byiyongereyeho 33.2%, bigera kuri miliyari 3.2 z’amadolari.

Raporo igaragaza uruhare rw’ibyo bihugu ko mu byoherezwa mu bihugu bigize umuryango EAC rwaragabanutse, ruva kuri 12.8% mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2025 rugera kuri 12.1% mu gihembwe nk’icyo cya 2026.

Ibi byatewe n’uko ibyoherezwa mu masoko yo hanze ya EAC byazamutse ku muvuduko uruta uw’ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu bigize Umuryango, nubwo ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu by’abafatanyabikorwa ba EAC bwiyongereye.

U Bushinwa bwakomeje kuba isoko rimwe rukumbi rinini EAC yoherezamo ibicuruzwa ndetse n’ahava ibicuruzwa byinshi bitumizwa mu mahanga.

Ibyoherezwa mu Bushinwa byikubye hafi kabiri, biva kuri miliyari 5.7 z’amadolari mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2025 bigera kuri miliyari 10.7 z’amadolari mu gihembwe nk’icyo cya 2026, ahanini bitewe n’amabuye y’agaciro n’ibindi bikoresho fatizo.

Ibicuruzwa byatumijwe mu Bushinwa na byo byariyongereye, biva kuri miliyari 4.7 bigera kuri miliyari 7.1 z’amadolari. Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu na Afurika y’Epfo na byo byari mu masoko akomeye EAC yoherezamo ibicuruzwa, mu gihe Ubuhinde, Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu, Arabiya Sawudite, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’Ubuyapani byari mu bihugu by’ingenzi EAC yatumizagamo ibicuruzwa.

Raporo igaragaza ko amabuye y’agaciro yagize 61.9% by’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byose, bivuye kuri 58.7% mu mwaka wabanje. Ibi bigaragaza ko aka Karere kakomeje gushingira ku musaruro ukomoka ku kohereza amabuye y’agaciro mu mahanga.

Ikawa, icyayi n’imboga na byo byakomeje kuba bimwe mu bicuruzwa by’ubuhinzi byoherezwa mu mahanga. Ibikomoka kuri peteroli ni byo byari ku isonga mu byatumijwe mu mahanga, bikurikirwa n’imashini, ibinyabiziga bitwara abantu n’ibintu ndetse n’ibikoresho by’inganda.

Izamuka ry’ibiciro

Raporo igaragaza ko igitutu cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro cyagabanutse muri icyo gihembwe, aho izamuka rusange ry’ibiciro ku mwaka mu Karere ka EAC, ryavuye kuri 11.1% muri Mata, rigera kuri 10.7% muri Gicurasi, ndetse rigera kuri 7.8% muri Kamena 2026.

Igipimo cyo muri Kamena cyari hasi cyane ugereranyije na 22.7% cyari cyabonetse mu mwaka wabanje. Ku bijyanye n’impinduka z’ibiciro kuva ku kwezi kumwe kugera ku kundi, igipimo cy’ibiciro mu Karere cyagabanutseho 0.8% muri Kamena, nyuma yo kuzamukaho 1.2% muri Gicurasi.

Izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa n’ibikorwa by’ibanze, hatabariwemo bimwe mu bicuruzwa bifite ibiciro bihindagurika cyane (core inflation), ryavuye kuri 6.2% muri Mata, rigera kuri 6.4% muri Gicurasi na 7.0% muri Kamena.

Raporo ikomeza igira iti: “Nubwo iki gipimo cyari hasi cyane ugereranyije na 19.3% cyariho muri Kamena 2025, iri zamuka ryagaragazaga ko igitutu cy’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa n’ibikorwa by’ibanze cyakomeje kubaho, nubwo izamuka rusange ry’ibiciro ryagabanutse.”

Izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibiribwa ryageze kuri 10.1% muri Kamena, rivuye kuri 9.5% muri Gicurasi, ariko rikomeza kuba hasi cyane ugereranyije na 37.5% ryariho muri Kamena 2025.  

Izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ingufu, ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibikorwa by’ibanze (Energy, Fuel and Utilities) ryagabanutse rigera kuri 11.1% muri Kamena, rivuye kuri 14.2% muri Gicurasi.

Icyakora, ryakomeje kuba hejuru ya 6.3% ryariho muri Kamena 2025, bigaragaza ko muri iki cyiciro igitutu cy’ibiciro ku mwaka cyari gikomeye kurusha uko byari bimeze umwaka wabanje.

Muri Kamena, izamuka rusange ry’ibiciro ku mwaka ryari 13.0% mu Rwanda no muri Sudani y’Epfo, 8.0% mu Burundi, 6.5% muri Kenya, 4.0% muri Tanzania na 3.7% muri Uganda. Muri Sudani y’Epfo, iki gipimo cyavuye kuri 23.1% muri Gicurasi, mu gihe mu Rwanda cyagumye kuri 13.0%.

Mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2025/26, impuzandengo y’umwaka y’izamuka rusange ry’ibiciro mu Karere yaragabanutse igera kuri 14.2%, ivuye kuri 23.0% mu mwaka wa 2024/25.

Raporo ivuga ko iri gabanuka ryatewe ahanini n’igabanuka ry’izamuka ry’ibiciro muri Sudani y’Epfo no mu Burundi, aho impuzandengo y’umwaka yavuye kuri 179.4% igera kuri 43.2% muri Sudani y’Epfo, naho mu Burundi ikava kuri 33.3% igera kuri 18.0%.

Imikorere ya Politiki y’Imari n’Ubwiyongere bw’Inguzanyo

Raporo y’ibarurishamibare y’igihembwe, igaragaza ko impinduka ku nyungu z’imari zitandukanye mu bihugu by’abafatanyabikorwa mu gihembwe cya Kabiri cya 2026.

Ugereranyije n’igihembwe cya mbere, Tanzania ni yo yagize igabanuka rinini ku nyungu aho zagabanutseho amanota 60 shingiro zigera kuri 3.6%, mu gihe Kenya ari yo yagize izamuka rinini, ry’amanota 120 shingiro, zigera kuri 8.7%. Uganda ni yo yari ifite igipimo cyo hejuru mu bihugu byatanze amakuru, aho cyari 10.2%.

Inyungu ku nguzanyo zazamutse muri Tanzania, mu Burundi no mu Rwanda, aho u Rwanda rwagize izamuka rinini ry’amanota 30 shingiro, rugera kuri 14.4%. Izo nyungu zagabanutse muri Kenya, Uganda na Sudani y’Epfo.

Nubwo inyungu ku nguzanyo muri Uganda zagabanutse ziva kuri 18.9% zigera kuri 16.9%, zakomeje kuba ari zo nyinshi mu bihugu byatanze amakuru.

Inyungu ku mafaranga abikwa muri banki zazamutse muri Tanzania, Burundi no mu Rwanda, zigabanuka muri Kenya na Uganda, mu gihe muri Sudani y’Epfo zagumye uko zari ziri.

Itandukaniro hagati y’inyungu ku nguzanyo n’iz’amafaranga abikwa (interest rate spread) na ryo ryari ritandukanye cyane. Sudani y’Epfo ni yo yari ifite itandukaniro rinini, ringana na 15.6%, mu gihe u Rwanda rwari rufite rito, ringana na 4.3%.

Inguzanyo zatanzwe mu nzego z’ingenzi z’ubukungu zarazamutse, nubwo umuvuduko w’izamuka watandukanye. Inguzanyo z’ubucuruzi bwo kugurisha no gucuruza, zazamutseho 29.1% ugereranyije n’umwaka wabanje, iz’ubuhinzi zazamutseho 25.6%, naho iz’ubwubatsi ziyongeraho 22.9%. Inguzanyo z’imitungo itimukanwa zazamutseho 6.2%, mu gihe iz’inganda ziyongereyeho 0.9% gusa.

Inguzanyo zahawe Leta n’izahawe ibigo bya Leta zitari iby’imari zagaragaje imigendekere itandukanye. Inguzanyo Leta ibereyemo amabanki n’izindi nzego z’imari, nyuma yo gukuramo umutungo Leta ifitiye izo nzego (Net Credit to Central Government), zazamutseho 7.5% ugereranyije n’umwaka wabanje, zigera kuri miliyari 37.5 z’amadolari, mu gihe inguzanyo zahawe ibigo bya Leta bitari iby’imari, nyuma yo gukuramo umutungo ibyo bigo bifitiye inzego z’imari, zagabanutseho 3.1%, zigera kuri miliyoni 650 z’amadolari.