Sobanukirwa El Niño igihe cyitezweho ibiza

El Niño ni kimwe mu byiciro by’imihindagurikire karemano y’ikirere bizwi nka ENSO, aho amazi yo mu gice cyo hagati n’iburasirazuba bw’inyanja ya Pasifika ashyuha kurusha uko bisanzwe.

El Niño iri gukomeza kwiyongera mu Nyanja ya Pasifika, aho Ishami ry’Umuryango w’Abibumbye ryita ku Bumenyi bw’Ikirere (WMO) rivuga ko ishobora kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mpera za 2026, ibintu bishobora kugira ingaruka ku mvura n’ubushyuhe mu bice bitandukanye by’Isi, birimo n’Afurika.

WMO ivuga ko iyi El Niño ishobora gukomeza kugaragara kugeza muri Gashyantare 2027, ndetse ko biteganyijwe ko izagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mezi ari imbere.

U Rwanda rwiteguye gute?

Mu Rwanda, inzego zishinzwe gukumira no guhangana n’ibiza ziri kongera ingamba zo kwitegura ingaruka z’imvura nyinshi n’inkangu zishobora kwiyongera.

Iteganyagihe ry’igihembwe cy’imvura cyatangajwe n’Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe Ubumenyi bw’Ikirere, Meteo Rwanda, ryerekana ko hagati ya Nzeri na Ukuboza 2026 hashobora kugwa imvura iri hagati ya milimetero 300 na 1 000, ikaba iri hejuru y’ikigereranyo cy’imyaka 30 ishize.

Umuyobozi Mukuru wa Meteo Rwanda, Aimable Gahigi, yavuze ko imvura ishobora kugwa mu mezi ari imbere ishobora kurenga milimetero 400 mu bice bimwe by’Igihugu.

Abahanga mu by’ikirere kandi bagaragaje ko ibihe by’imvura bishobora kugira imiterere isa n’iyagaragaye mu 1997 ndetse no mu 2023, ubwo imvura nyinshi yatezaga imyuzure n’inkangu mu bice bitandukanye by’u Rwanda.

Mu 2023, imvura nyinshi n’imyuzure byahitanye abantu barenga 130, byangiza inzu zirenga 6 000 ndetse n’ibikorwa remezo, cyane cyane mu Ntara y’Iburengerazuba.

Abantu barasabwa kwirinda ibishobora guteza ibiza

MINEMA ivuga ko ingaruka zishobora kugaragara mu Rwanda zirimo imvura nyinshi, imyuzure, inkangu n’umuyaga ukomeye, bishobora kwangiza inzu n’ibikorwa remezo ndetse bikagira ingaruka ku buzima bw’abantu.

MINEMA ivuga ko kuva mu ntangiriro za 2026, ingo 4 785 zimaze kwimurwa ahantu hashobora kwibasirwa n’ibiza, mu gihe abaturage hafi 4 000 bamaze guhugurwa ku gukumira no guhangana n’ibiza.

Hari kandi ibigo 14 by’agateganyo byateguwe mu Turere icyenda ari two Burera, Gakenke, Musanze, Nyabihu, Rubavu, Rutsiro, Ngororero, Karongi na Nyaruguru.

Ibikoresho by’ubutabazi nabyo byashyizwe ahantu hatandukanye, birimo Kigali, Musanze, Kayonza na Karongi, kugira ngo bizifashishwe mu gihe habaye ibiza.

U Rwanda ruri kongera ubushobozi bwo gutabara

Ku wa 10 na 11 Kanama 2026, MINEMA ku bufatanye na Banki y’Isi yakoze imyitozo y’imbonerahamwe y’ibikorwa by’ubutabazi, igamije kureba uko inzego zakwitwara mu gihe igihugu cyahuye n’ibiza bikomeye.

Iyo myitozo yari igamije kunoza uburyo bwo gutangiza no gushyira mu bikorwa umushinga wa Contingent Emergency Response Project, CERP, ndetse no kwihutisha kubona inkunga y’amafaranga mu gihe habaye ikibazo cyihutirwa.

Umunyamabanga Uhoraho muri MINEMA, Aristarque Ngoga, yavuze ko kwitegura ibiza atari ugutegura ibikoresho gusa, ahubwo ko inzego zigomba kuba zizi inshingano zazo kandi zigakorana neza mu gihe cy’ikibazo.

Yagize ati: “Kwitegura ntabwo ari ukubona ibikoresho gusa; ni no kureba ko inzego zizi inshingano zazo kandi zishobora gufata ibyemezo vuba kandi zigakorana neza igihe habaye ikibazo.”

U Rwanda rwasabye inkunga ya miliyoni 86,2 z’amadolari, arenga miliyari 126,6 Frw, yo kongera ubushobozi bwo kwitegura no guhangana n’ibiza mu bice biri mu kaga.

Ibyo El Niño ishobora gusiga mu Rwanda

Nubwo El Niño idateza ingaruka zimwe ahantu hose, imvura nyinshi ishobora kongera ibyago by’imyuzure n’inkangu mu bice by’u Rwanda bisanzwe byugarijwe n’ibi bibazo.

Mu myaka itanu ishize, ibiza byangije inzu zirenga 16 600 mu Rwanda, muri yo hafi 2 700 arasenyuka burundu. Ibikorwa remezo birimo imihanda, ibiraro, amashuri, amashanyarazi, ibigo nderabuzima n’amasoko nabyo byarangijwe.

Ni yo mpamvu inzego zishinzwe gukumira ibiza zisaba abaturage kudategereza ko imvura itangira kugira ngo batange umusanzu mu kwirinda ingaruka.

Ku rwego rw’umuryango, ni ngombwa gusukura imiyoboro y’amazi, gukomeza ibisenge, kwirinda kwegera imigezi n’ahantu hashobora kugwira ubutaka, ndetse no gukurikira amakuru y’iteganyagihe n’amatangazo atangwa n’inzego zibishinzwe.

Ku rwego mpuzamahanga, WMO ivuga ko amakuru y’iteganyagihe n’uburyo bwo kuburira hakiri kare ari ingenzi kuko biha abaturage n’inzego umwanya wo gufata ingamba mbere y’uko ibiza bibageraho.

Dr. Guterres na we yasabye ko hakomeza gushyirwa imbaraga mu gutegura gahunda zo kurinda abantu ubushyuhe bukabije, kubaka ibikorwa remezo bishobora guhangana n’ubushyuhe no kurengera abantu bari mu kaga gakomeye.

Ati: “Igihe cyo gutegereza igikorwa nyamukuru kirarangiye. Ntidushobora gukomeza gutegereza.”

Umunyamabanga Mukuru w’Umuryango w’Abibumbye, Dr. António Guterres, yavuze ko El Niño itakiri ikibazo kiri kure, ahubwo ko yamaze gutangira kugira uruhare mu kongera ubushyuhe ku Isi.

Mu kiganiro n’abanyamakuru ku wa 31 Nyakanga 2026, Dr. Guterres yagize ati: “El Niño ntabwo ikiri ku muryango wacu gusa ubu iri mu nzu kandi iri kongera ubushyuhe.”

Yavuze ko El Niño iri gukomeza kongera ingufu mu gihe Isi isanzwe ihanganye n’ubushyuhe bukabije, inkongi z’imiriro n’ubwiyongere bw’ubushyuhe bwo mu nyanja.

Iyo amazi yo mu gice cyo hagati n’iburasirazuba bw’inyanja ya Pasifika ashyuha kurusha uko bisanzwe, bishobora guhindura imigendekere y’imvura n’ubushyuhe mu bice bitandukanye by’Isi. Ubusanzwe El Niño igaragara hagati y’imyaka ibiri n’irindwi, kandi ishobora kumara amezi icyenda kugeza kuri 12.

Si imvura kandi si inkubi y’umuyaga, ni ihinduka rinini ry’ubushyuhe n’imigendekere y’amazi yo mu Nyanja ya Pasifika, rikagira ingaruka ku kirere cyo hirya no hino ku Isi.

Kuki iyi El Niño iteye impungenge?

WMO ivuga ko El Niño iriho muri uyu mwaka irakomeye kandi ko ishobora gukomeza kwiyongera.

Muri Kanama kugeza mu Kwakira 2026, ubushyuhe bw’amazi yo mu bice by’ingenzi bya Pasifika bushobora kuba hejuru cyane ugereranyije n’ubusanzwe, mu gihe ibimenyetso byerekana ko El Niño ishobora gukomeza gukomera ikagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mbere y’uko igera ku ndunduro yayo.

Guterres yavuze ko El Niño igira uruhare rukomeye ku mvura, ku buryo mu bice bimwe ishobora gutuma imvura yiyongera igateza imyuzure, mu gihe ahandi ishobora gutera amapfa.

Ati: “Turimo kujya mu gice tutamenyereye.”

Yagaragaje kandi ko ubushyuhe bukabije bushobora kugira ingaruka ku buzima bw’abantu, ubuhinzi, amashanyarazi, imihanda, ubwikorezi n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa.

Kuri ubu, ikibazo gikomeye ku Rwanda si ukumenya niba El Niño izagira ingaruka, ahubwo ni ugukomeza gutegura abaturage n’inzego kugira ngo igihe imvura nyinshi cyangwa izindi ngaruka z’ikirere zaramuka zibayeho zizasange biteguye kandi bakomeye, ntizagire ingaruka z’umurengera.